The Doom Loop

July 28, 2010 · Leave a Comment

According to Roubini, for the past 40 years debt has been increasing at a rate out of all proportion to the underlying rate of economic growth. This increase in relative debt burdens is quite unhealthy and has created an ever-lower interest rates to prevent economic calamity followed by an ever-increasing severity of financial crisis, the Doom Loop.

What is the doom loop? It is the unstable, crash-prone boom-bust lifestyle we have now been living for some 40 years, where a cycle of cheap financing and lax regulation leads to excess risk and credit growth followed by huge losses and bailouts. With interest rates near zero everywhere, the doom loop seems to have hit a terminal state where debt deflation and depression are the only end game unless serious reform measures are taken. Recovery or not, weak consumer spending will last for years.

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Bruce Berkowitz Places Big Bets On Financials

July 28, 2010 · Leave a Comment

(Dow Jones)

Well-known mutual-fund manager Bruce Berkowitz is still betting on the U.S. financial sector, saying he recently accumulated a stake in Morgan Stanley (MS).

Berkowitz told Dow Jones Newswires on Wednesday that he started buying shares of the investment bank in the second quarter and now holds a stake amounting to just under 2%. That makes his Fairholme Fund (FAIRX) a Top 10 holder in the company with slightly more than 25 million shares.

“It’s a powerful franchise…that has been under the weather with most other financials in the United States,” Berkowitz said. “It’s a company that’s well run and is resuscitating itself with a significant global presence. And the price was right.”

A spokesperson from Morgan Stanley wasn’t able to confirm the stock purchases and declined to comment further.

Morgan Stanley shares closed up 6 cents to $27.01. It shares have dropped 11% over the past three months and are down a little more than 1.5% over the past 12.

Berkowitz recently has been betting on stocks often seen as risky–ones that are undervalued and preferably throw off a lot of cash. He is best-known as manager of the Fairholme Fund, which has $14.7 billion in assets and holdings that also include Citigroup Inc. (C) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC). His investment in Morgan Stanley, worth about $700 million, makes up about 4% to 5% of the fund.

Earlier this month, Berkowitz disclosed a boosted stake in American International Group Inc. (AIG), as well as a hefty holding in MBIA Inc. (MBI). Both companies’ shares jumped on the news, taken by other investors as a sign of continued confidence in the U.S. financial sector.

“While we don’t know how much money we will make for shareholders, we believe we aren’t going to lose money with these institutions,” Berkowitz said, adding he’s investing in financial stocks for the long haul.

Berkowitz said Wednesday that while a double-dip recession is possible, it’s not probable and that it’s the “nature of recovery to have fits and starts.”

He added that “it has never been a good idea to bet against the United States and its people.”

Berkowitz also expressed confidence in MBIA’s management team and said the company still provides a valuable service as a municipal bond insurer–something that’s necessary despite the investment community’s doubts.

“MBIA still, in my opinion, has a franchise, and it has the right people to lead the company back to past glory,” Berkowitz said. “And most importantly for [Fairholme's] 400,000 shareholders, we believe it has the cash to sustain the business.”

Berkowitz also said MBIA’s transformation plan appears to be progressing on track and that the company’s separation of divisions was the right choice.

MBIA split off National Public Finance Guarantee, its public-finance business, as part of an attempt to restart its business of selling financial guarantees on bonds issued by cities, water authorities and other public-finance entities. Its main unit was left with fewer claims-paying resources for its troubled mortgage exposures, which caused banks, investment funds and other policy holders to balk at the plan and file litigation against MBIA.

Still, Berkowitz said he expects the restructuring litigation to be resolved by the end of the year. He also said he would “love to find ways to further help the company beyond buying shares in the open market,” including taking actions to strengthen MBIA’s balance sheet.

As for AIG, Berkowitz said he continues to believe the government can eventually sell its stake in the troubled insurer, and a clear exit path should be established by the end of 2011.

“The history of our country and the history of capitalism is not a smooth, easy path,” he said. “Given what the country has just been through, I can see and feel the recovery. But it’s still going to take some time.”

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Doom & Fear

July 27, 2010 · Leave a Comment

We are delighted to introduce our latest monthy newsletter: Doom & Fear. Our most exclusive monthly report, the newsletter is ideal for sophisticated investors. It focuses on market-driven fears, panics, black swans, and doomsday scenarios playing out in the market. In a world where abnormal has become normal, the report provides investors with the clarity needed to take advantage of irrational market fears. As an added bonus, the report includes our own Doom & Fear Index, which aims to provide investors with a unique trading and market-timing tool.

CLICK HERE FOR SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION

 

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Newsletter Preview

July 25, 2010 · Leave a Comment

Our monthly newsletters ValueFocus and ValueEdge will be published a week from today. The 14th Issue of ValueFocus will have the following content:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Gold Pandemic: From Fever to Malaise

A Ticking Time Bomb

The Lost Decade of 2010-2020

Old-Timers Do It Best

Top Activist Opportunities

Top Arbitrage Opportunities

CLICK HERE FOR SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION 

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Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF) – Valuation & Strategy Update

July 22, 2010 · 2 Comments

Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF), one of the stocks still part of the ValueHuntr Portfolio,  also one of our favorite investments, recently held an earnings call where management updated shareholders on the company’s future plans and strategy. Some of the updates, along with an updated valuation, are posted below.

Revenues and Earnings

For the three months ended February 28, 2010, revenues increased 13.6 percent to approximately $8.8 million, compared with approximately $7.7 million in the fourth quarter of the previous fiscal year. Same-store sales at franchised retail locations increased 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of FY2010, while same-store pounds of factory products purchased by franchisees increased approximately 0.3 percent, when compared with the fourth quarter of FY2009.

The Company reported net income of $1,200,000 in the fourth quarter of FY2010, which represented an increase of 15.4 percent when compared with net income of $1,040,000 in the fourth quarter of FY2009.

Basic earnings per share rose 17.6 percent in the fourth quarter of FY2010 to $0.20, while diluted earnings per share increased 11.8 percent in the fourth quarter of FY2010 to $0.19, when compared with $0.17 and $0.17, respectively, during the fourth quarter of FY2009.

Although net income declined 3.7 percent for the fiscal year, we still generated an after-tax return on beginning shareholders’ equity (ROE) of approximately 27.0 percent – well above the ROE of the typical U.S. Corporation. Simply put, this company is a cash-generating machine.

Co-Branding With Cold Stone Creamery

During the past year, Cold Stone and Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory have partnered to create co-branded stores that have increased sales and franchise owner profitability.

According to Dam Beem, CEO of Cold Stone Creamery, the co-branding partnership with Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory was designed to leverage the complementary seasonality of both brands and maximize store operations throughout the year. The partnership drove same-store sales increases of 14% to 16% during the colder and typically slower winter months and outpaced industry averages during the down economy. Because the initial 13 Cold Stone and Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory co-branded locations exceeded projected profitability, the program was expanded to additional Cold Stone franchisees to incorporate the premier confectionery brand into their stores.

Co-Branding Expansion

On the latest call, Rocky Mountain management indicated that the pace of co-branded store openings had accelerated from 1 store during the first fiscal quarter of 2010 to 7 in the first quarter of fiscal year 2011. According to Franklin Crail, Rocky Mountain CEO, the pace of co-branded openings will accelerate even more in the quarters to come.

To date, 25 stores have either opened or been converted to the Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory/Cold Stone Creamery co-branded concept, and management has identified several hundred CSC stores that they believe have the potential to be converted in coming years. The increase in cash flow generated by incremental sales at the co-branded stores appears to provide a return on investment sufficient to attract a growing number of CSC franchisees to the co-branding opportunity, and the number of cobranded stores is expected to increase significantly in the current fiscal year. At the end of fiscal 2010, RMCF’s retail store network consisted of 313 franchised Rocky Mountain Stores, 11 company-owned stores, and 19 stores cobranded with CSC.

Dividends and Buybacks

Because franchise growth does not require a lot of cash, Rocky Mountain has been able to return a significant share of its earnings to shareholdelrs. RMCF began paying cash dividends in 2003 and has increased its dividend payout ten (10) times during the past six years.  The current dividend of $0.40 per share provides investors with a current yield of 4.2% based on a recent stock price of $9.55.  Additionally, the Board has approved a repurchase program of up to $3.3 million of company stock, roughly 6% of all the shares in the company.

Valuation

Incorporating a lot of the provided updates in our analysis, we estimate the company is worth at least $11 per share. A range of outcomes is possible based on macroeconomic conditions and the execution of the co-branding partnership with Cold Stone. My analysis suggests a worst case scenario (stress test) of $7.7 per share, and $12.7 in the most optimistic case.

 

Investment Payoff

 We have concluded that our investment in RMCF is of very low risk, as the probability of a catastrophic loss of capital is remote. We have plotted the range of possible outcomes in what we call a “symmetry plot”, to evaluate whether or not the odds of positive return are in our favor. In the case of RMCF, it is evident that we would break even as long as we have a 30% or greater chance of predicting the right outcome.

 

 Disclosure: I own shares of RMCF in my personal portfolio

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Exclusive Discount To Value Investing Congress

July 21, 2010 · Leave a Comment

This is a reminder that we are  offering our readers an exclusive $1,800 discount for the 6th Annual Value Investing Congress, taking place October 12 & 13, 2010 in New York City. This offer expires in 8 days, so get your ticket now using dicount code: N10VH4

The Value Investing Congress is the place for value investors from around the world to network with other serious, sophisticated value investors and benefit from the sharing of investment wisdom. The world-renowned presenters of successful investors present timely investment ideas, examine key concepts of value investing, and reflect on past misjudgments to help you become a more successful investor.

This year’s presenters include:

  • David Einhorn, Greenlight Capital Management
  • Lee Ainslie, Maverick Capital
  • John Burbank, Passport Capital
  • J Kyle Bass, Hayman Capital
  • Mohnish Pabrai, Pabrai Investment Funds
  • Amitabh Singhi, Surefin Investments
  • J. Carlo Cannell, Cannell Capital
  • Zeke Ashton, Centaur Capital Partners
  • Whitney Tilson & Glenn Tongue, T2 Partners

…with many more to come!

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The Next Great Bailout: $1 Trillion for Underfunded Pension Funds

July 21, 2010 · Leave a Comment

The federal government will likely face another round of massive bailouts if the current state of pension funds persists.

A recent study by the Pew Center on the States found that at the end of fiscal year 2008, there was a $1 trillion gap between the $2.35 trillion states and participating localities had set aside to pay for employees’ retirement benefits and the $3.35 trillion price tag of those promises.

According to the study, to a significant degree, the $1 trillion gap reflects states’ own policy choices and lack of discipline: failing to make annual payments for pension systems at the levels recommended by their own actuaries and expanding benefits without fully considering their long-term price tag.

But besides all the politics, a basic problem is an assumed 8% or greater expected investment return over time – the most common assumption for state pension funds. Simply put, it is unrealistic to count on such investment yields, especially during this extended period of high unemployment and lack of global aggregate demand.

According to Bill Gross, we are in a “new normal” which consists on slow growth in the developed world, insufficiently high levels of consumption in the emerging world, and “seemingly inexplicable low total returns on investment portfolios – bonds and stocks –lie ahead”.

But just how low?

Gross says that 4-6% annualized returns for a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds is the likely outcome. If he is correct (I presume he is) states will be forced to go to the federal government for help. The State of New Jersey’s pension fund (which assumes a 8.75% investment yield) would run out cash for benefits by 2020 if there were no new contributions. But we would first hear from the Illinois Pension Funds, as it would run out of cash by 2017.

The price of promising pensions that states cannot afford will probably lead to the federal government stepping in.  On a positive note, it may force us to move back to basics: we might only get as much money as we put into the system, and no more.

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Tiger Sowing Seeds of Growth: Julian Robertson Weights Reopening Fund

July 20, 2010 · Leave a Comment

By Jenny Strasburg (WSJ)

Julian Robertson famously wound down his hedge fund at Tiger Management LLC a decade ago amid losses and turned to managing his own fortune.

Now, the 78-year-old legendary investor is considering reopening Tiger, a launching pad for young money managers, to the outside world.

Mr. Robertson has beefed up Tiger’s management ranks as part of a potential expansion that could involve creating a “seeding” fund or a fund of hedge funds for outside investors.

In a seeding fund, Tiger would allow outside clients to come in alongside Mr. Robertson and his team to help fund new or early-stage hedge-fund managers in exchange for a slice of their business. A more-common fund of funds would collect outside investors’ money and dole it out to Tiger-seeded managers, who would in turn invest it.

Details and timing are uncertain, as Mr. Robertson said in an interview that he still is exploring options.

“We want our seeds to do well, and we want future seeds to do well,” he said.

This month, Mr. Robertson hired a former Goldman Sachs executive, John L. Townsend III, as operations chief, and promoted the youngest of his three sons, Alex Robertson, to managing partner.

“I’m engaged, but I have a lot of faith in them,” Mr. Robertson said of his newly appointed executives, in an interview Tuesday. “I respect their judgment, which makes it a lot easier for me not to be on the scene.”

Mr. Robertson, a native of North Carolina, remains chairman and chief executive, though he spends much of the year abroad. Besides running Tiger, he owns golf courses and wineries in New Zealand.

Mr. Robertson started Tiger in 1980. It became one of the biggest, most successful private money managers in the world. It has spawned a generation of spinoffs, known as Tiger Cubs, who have gone on to earn billions. They include Stephen Mandel of Lone Pine Capital, John Griffin of Blue Ridge Capital and Lee Ainslie of Maverick Capital.

Tiger at its 1990s peak oversaw $22 billion invested in stocks, currencies and other holdings. In 1999, the firm saw significant losses and lost investors. After assets declined to about $6 billion in March 2000, Mr. Robertson decided to close down and return money to clients. That same year he set about reinventing Tiger as an incubator for new money managers. Now, it owns partial stakes in 40 Tiger “seeds,” which are hedge-fund managers who got help launching with Tiger money and who now control $22 billion in assets for Tiger and other clients.

Mr. Robertson owns a piece of each manager’s business, and in turn they get some of his wealth to invest. They range in size from about $35 million to $4 billion in assets.

Many Tiger-seeded managers share sprawling office space with Mr. Robertson with panoramic views of Manhattan from the top floors of 101 Park Ave.

One potential hurdle to attracting investors to a Tiger fund of hedge funds is a perception that many Tiger seeds invest in similar strategies and securities. Fund-of-fund clients typically are looking for diversification in underlying managers. Mr. Robertson recently has addressed such concerns with clients of Tiger-seeded funds, telling them that the entire platform of 40 managers reflects a wide range of strategies and holdings.

This year, Mr. Robertson engaged in preliminary discussions about selling Tiger Management, said people familiar with the matter. Instead, Mr. Robertson bolstered Tiger’s senior ranks with an eye toward expanding the firm independently, said one person close to the matter.

Mr. Townsend, 54 years old and also from North Carolina, in the 1990s supervised Goldman’s southern U.S. region before becoming co-head of leveraged finance. He left Goldman in 2002 and has been in private investing since.

The 30-year-old Alex Robertson was a legislative assistant to former Sen. Elizabeth Dole before heading to Stanford University, where he earned an M.B.A. degree in 2008. He went from there to Tiger, serving on the management committee and helping select managers.

“Certainly, we feel it’s the time, and Julian and Alex certainly do, to ask, what do the next 10 years of Tiger look like?” Mr. Townsend said in an interview.

In the role of chief operations officer, Mr. Townsend replaces Dr. Aaron Stern, a longtime Tiger executive who remains a senior adviser.

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Reminder: ValueEdge & ValueFocus Newsletters

July 19, 2010 · Leave a Comment

Both newsletters will be published 2 weeks from today. For more info see HERE.

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Shaking up is Hard to Do: The Story of Cadus Corp. and Carl Icahn

July 18, 2010 · 1 Comment

by Jason Zweig (WSJ)

The Securities and Exchange Commission is trying to fix “proxy plumbing” to make it easier for shareholders to effect change inside companies. But confronting insiders, who are richer and better-informed than you, will probably remain a lonely, lopsided battle.

Just ask Matthew Crouse of Salt Lake City. Starting in 2002, he sank roughly $190,000 into Cadus Corp., a classic “value” stock. The tiny company was selling for less than the amount of its cash minus debt.

Another reason Mr. Crouse was attracted to Cadus: Its largest shareholder was Carl Icahn, the renowned activist investor who has shaken up such companies as Texaco, Yahoo and Lions Gate Entertainment. On July 1, after 17 years as Cadus’s most powerful director, Mr. Icahn ceded his board seat to his son Brett.

Cadus, with a market value of only $19 million, has no employees, no operations, and just $100,000 in annual revenue from biotechnology discoveries that it sold a decade ago. Yet the company is sitting on $24 million in cash, plus more than $28 million in tax benefits that could be used to shelter future earnings.

In order to use those benefits, Cadus needs to acquire or merge with another company that produces profits. Complicating matters, the tax benefits begin to expire this year, with $10 million lapsing by 2012.

In February 2009, Mr. Crouse wrote to Cadus, requesting that the board sell the company and return the cash proceeds to investors. He drafted a resolution to that effect, which he asked the board to include in Cadus’ proxy statement when shareholders were next asked to vote.

Yet Cadus didn’t hold an annual meeting last year. One large shareholder says that “time and again, we have brought opportunities [for mergers or acquisitions] to the attention of the board.” Each time, he says, the suggestion was rebuffed or ignored. “It’s been a decade of complete non-action,” he says.

A little over a week ago—17 months after Mr. Crouse’s letter—Cadus informed him that it will hold its annual meeting on Oct. 6, that his resolution will be included and that the board will recommend that shareholders reject it.

“My goal is to get it on Icahn’s radar screen so that he’ll need to deal with us, not just ignore us,” Mr. Crouse says. “If you push for shareholder activism in other companies, I’d think you’d want to take care of your own.”

It isn’t that simple, Mr. Icahn counters. “We’ve been looking assiduously for three years for opportunities,” he told me this week. “But I don’t want to make a bad acquisition and lose the cash.” He added, “I strongly believe that in today’s type of market we will find a company [to buy] fairly soon.”

Furthermore, Mr. Icahn says, if Cadus distributed its cash to shareholders, it would have no money for an acquisition, losing the opportunity to use its tax benefits directly. “I don’t want to waste $25 million,” he says. Of course, Cadus could still be acquired by another firm that could make use of the tax break.

Cadus is less a company than a publicly traded checking account with a tax perk attached. The insiders are the only ones who can write checks. The minority shareholders can always vote with their feet by selling the stock—although they would have little to show for it.

For the proposal to pass, nearly 90% of all the minority shareholders would have to vote for it, since Mr. Icahn controls 40% of the stock.

“This is the type of contest that can be won,” says Gary Lutin, chairman of the Shareholder Forum, an investor-advocacy organization. “But [Mr. Crouse] is assuming all the burden and, given his small holdings, the absolute dollar amount of [profit] if he wins may not justify his costs.” Even if victory comes to Mr. Crouse, it may not be sweet.

No matter how the SEC reforms the proxy system, management will retain the upper hand; companies have deeper pockets, and insiders have better knowledge, than most outsiders do.

Nonproxy measures—like electronic surveys to determine whether investors support management—may be faster, cheaper ways to improve corporate democracy.

It is tempting to tag along with famous investors, like Mr. Icahn. But if their view of what is right for the company differs from yours, their view will almost certainly prevail.

Finally, several traits are essential to be a successful investor: intelligence, independence, skepticism, patience, discipline. To be a successful activist, however, you need at least one more attribute: stubbornness.

If you are a quitter, the Don Quixote life isn’t for you.

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